Illicit Financial Flows from Africa
A pivotal study by the team, The effect of illicit financial flows on time to reach the fourth Millennium Development Goal in Sub-Saharan Africa, examining the impact of Illicit Financial Flows (IFFs) on under-five mortality, formed part of the analytical foundation of the landmark High-Level Panel on Illicit Financial Flows from Africa—reinforced the panels call for urgent fiscal reforms.
The Panel notably urged the production of “more empirical studies to establish the relationship between IFFs and developmental indicators.” In direct response to the Panel’s call for actionable tools, GRADE was developed which has since had a substantial global impact, informing policy interventions and advocacy strategies that directly influence health outcomes.
The next iteration of the teams modelling, reported in the paper – Quality of governance, public spending on health and health status in Sub Saharan Africa: a panel data regression analysis, was used to show the impact on child mortality by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development team in their 2020 report Tackling Illicit Financial Flows for Sustainable Development in Africa.
The panel’s findings laid the groundwork for broader international action, eventually leading to a a call by the African Finance ministers in May 2022 which heralded the passing by consensus of a UN resolution at the end of 2022 that gave the UN Secretary General the mandate to publish a report on options for international tax; it signalled the start of an intergovernmental discussion on taxation at the UN General Assembly.
The secretary-general called for inputs to this report. GRADE modelling was used in a submission by the global advocacy organisation, the Tax Justice Network and the Universities of St Andrews and Leicester.UN resolution mandating the Secretary-General to invite submissions for a new international tax framework, marking the beginning of intergovernmental negotiations toward a UN Framework Convention on Tax.
GRADEs’ work on tax is featured in the Guardian, Independent, and Bloomberg News.
Evidence for on for the value and of GRADE for advocacy for is illustrated by Rob Floyd
Director, Innovation and Digital Policy, African Centre for Economic Transformation
“we had an African head of state that came to us asking for some briefing material. And we were able to provide inputs there. In another instance, it went to a briefing for a G7, minister of Development. It’s gone into numerous speeches, inputs to ministers of finance…. it’s been a very useful tool for us”